In September 2020, the Department of Crisis Preparedness and Civil Defence of the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) contacted the Department of Physical Geography and the Bolin Centre for Climate Research of Stockholm University. The request was to conduct a literature review regarding the potential risks in Sweden from climate change by 2050, especially those occurring after the adaptation and mitigation strategies are adopted by the Swedish Government to
tackle climate change. The study would be developed during four months, from September to December 2020, and would comprise mainly of a literature review.

“We have worked together with colleagues at Uppsala University and Mid Sweden University. Our group took a particular focus on hydro climatology and water resources, taking advantage of the Department of Physical Geography’s background and the focus of Research Area 3 of the Bolin Centre for Climate Research,” says lead researcher Fernando Jaramillo.

The slow-onset risks covered in the report are:

• Blue groundwater drought
• Green water risks for agriculture
• Pests in agriculture and forestry
• Groundwater contamination
• Salt water intrusion
• Health risks due to rising temperature
• Risks to terrestrial ecosystems
• Risks in aquatic and marine ecosystems

In the concluding section of the report, the authors write:
“While there are numerous examples of climate adaptation in many sectors and levels of society, there is a need to develop further knowledge and cooperation of adaptation and harmonization on a national level.”

“However, we were not able to map how adaptations and mitigation strategies in Sweden will change the risk from climate change. This is because there is no explicit information on how agriculture, land planning, hydropower and water use will adapt to climate change. These are important knowledge gaps that needs to be addressed in order to map future risks,” says Fernando Jaramillo.

Download the study in English and Swedish
Slow-onset risks from climate change in Sweden in 2050 (2423 Kb)

Långsamma kontinuerliga risker från klimatförändringar i Sverige 2050 (2564 Kb)

Overview of a selection of climate-related risks in 2050-2070 under the climate scenario RCP4.5

For more information, contact:
Fernando Jaramillo, fernando.jaramillo@natgeo.su.se
Susanne Ingvander, Sara Nordmark, Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, klimatanpassning@msb.se, telephone:  0771-240240

Reference:
F. Jaramillo, V. Lund, B. Stock, L. Piemontese. Slow-onset risks from climate change in Sweden in 2050 (SV: Långsamma kontinuerliga risker från klimatförändringar i Sverige 2050), Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB), 2021.