A selection from Stockholm University publication database

• Contribution of prioritized urban nature-based solutions allocation to carbon neutrality

  2023. Haozhi Pan (et al.). Nature Climate Change 13 (8), 862-870

  Article

  Nature-based solutions (NBS) are essential for carbon-neutral cities, yet how to effectively allocate them remains a question. Carbon neutrality requires city-led climate action plans that incorporate both indirect and direct contributions of NBS. Here we assessed the carbon emissions mitigation potential of NBS in European cities, focusing particularly on commonly overlooked indirect pathways, for example, human behavioural interventions and resource savings. Assuming maximum theoretical implementation, NBS in the residential, transport and industrial sectors could reduce urban carbon emissions by up to 25%. Spatially prioritizing different types of NBS in 54 major European Union cities could reduce anthropogenic carbon emissions by on average 17.4%. Coupling NBS with other existing measures in Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios could reduce total carbon emissions by 57.3% in 2030, with both indirect pathways and sequestration. Our results indicate that carbon neutrality will be near for some pioneering cities by 2030, while three can achieve it completely. Effective spatial allocation of the nature-based solutions is important for city mitigation through various pathways. This Analysis allocates prioritized urban nature-based solutions to major European cities and estimates their potential contribution to emission reductions, then the carbon neutrality targets.

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• Modeling place-based nature-based solutions to promote urban carbon neutrality

  2023. Cong Cong (et al.). Ambio (52), 1297-1313

  Article

  Nature-based solutions (NbS) are recognized as widely available and cost-effective mechanisms for sequestering carbon and offsetting carbon emissions. Realistic NbS implementations for carbon neutrality need to be effective at the global level and also appropriate for the socio-economic and physical conditions prevailing at the local level. This paper presents a framework that can help stakeholders identify demands, locations, and types of NbS interventions that could maximize NbS benefits at the local scale. Key processes in the framework include (1) interpolating carbon emissions data at larger spatial scales to high-resolution cells, using land use and socio-economic data; (2) assessing NbS effects on carbon reduction and their location-related suitability, through qualitative literature review, and (3) spatially allocating and coupling multiple NbS interventions to land use cells. The system was tested in Stockholm, Sweden. The findings show that the urban center should be allocated with combinations of improving access to green spaces and streetscapes, while the rural and suburban areas should prioritize preserving and utilizing natural areas. Our proposed method framework can help planners better select target locations for intended risk/hazard-mitigating interventions.

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• First Mile/Last Mile Problems in Smart and Sustainable Cities: A Case Study in Stockholm County

  2022. Elisie Kåresdotter (et al.). The Journal of urban technology 29 (2), 115-137

  Article

  The first mile/last mile (FM/LM) problem in public transport refers to the spatial accessibility of public transport and is the most important factor determining whether an individual will choose public transport. The FM/LM problem in Stockholm County, Sweden, was evaluated using a Geographic Information System estimating distances to public transport for the years 2019 and 2035. Overall, the population in Stockholm County, have good access to public transport. However, access varies with abilities, with elderly having 50 percent and elderly impaired 15 percent of their area within walking distance to public transport compared with the average citizen. Planned developments can provide good access to public transport, with extensive improvements for the elderly. However, inadequate planning for population increase will likely decrease the perceived public transport accessibility. Apartments and commercial buildings in the study area have high access to public transport. Elderly people have good access within city and regional centers, while access could be improved in other areas. Inclusion of FM/LM in the planning support system used in Stockholm could help mitigate FM/LM problems and extend access to public transport to all people of different abilities. This is vital in creating sustainable mobility networks and achieving sustainable development in smart cities. 

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• A more complete accounting of greenhouse gas emissions and sequestration in urban landscapes

  2021. Jessica Page (et al.). Anthropocene 34

  Article

  Understanding interactions between complex human and natural systems involved in urban carbon cycling is important when balancing the dual goals of urban development to accommodate a growing population, while also achieving urban carbon neutrality. This study develops a systems breakdown accounting method to assess the urban carbon cycle. The method facilitates greater understanding of the complex interactions within and between systems involved in this cycle, in order to identify ways in which humans can adapt their interactions to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions from urban regions. Testing the systems breakdown accounting method in Stockholm County, Sweden, we find that it provides new insights into the carbon interactions with urban green-blue areas in the region. Results show how Stockholm County can reduce its emissions and achieve its goal of local carbon net-neutrality, if the green areas protect its carbon sequestration potential and maintain it to offset projected remaining active emissions. Results also show that the inland surface waters and inner archipelago waters within Stockholm County are a considerable source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. A better understanding of these water emissions is necessary to formulate effective planning and policy measures that can reduce urban emissions. The insights gained from this study can also be applied in other regions. In particular, water bodies could play a significant role in the urban carbon cycle and using this knowledge for more complete carbon accounting, and a better understanding of green-blue interactions could help to reduce net urban emissions in many places.

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• How ecosystems services drive urban growth: Integrating nature-based solutions

  2021. Haozhi Pan (et al.). Anthropocene 35

  Article

  Addressing urban challenges with nature-based approaches can improve and protect ecosystem services. Yet, urban planning has not efficiently integrated such approaches to manage land use. This paper examines interactions between human and natural systems that result in ecosystem services and changes in land use and land cover in urban areas. It develops a social-ecological model for land use and land cover change, and for ecosystems services that integrates nature-based solutions in urban planning. The model treats spatial variations in ecosystems services as both drivers and consequences of human decision-making in choosing commercial and residential locations that drive land use and land cover change. We tested the social-ecological model in Stockholm County, Sweden, on a 30 x 30 m grid. Results show that accessibility in ecosystem services drives urban residential and commercial development, characterized by non-linearity. Areas around existing urban centers show high accessibility in ecosystem services and high development probabilities, whereas smaller population centers in large areas enjoy high accessibility to ecosystem services and low urban development probabilities. Model results suggest place-specific nature-based strategies for addressing the heterogeneous spatial relationships between ecosystem services and urban development.

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• Urban Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment of Support Climate-Resilient City Development

  2021. Zipan Cai, Jessica Page, Vladimir Cvetkovic. Urban Planning 6 (3), 227-239

  Article

  Abstract:  Climate change poses a threat to cities. Geospatial information and communication technology (Geo-ICT) assisted planning is increasingly being utilised to foster urban sustainability and adaptability to climate change. To fill the theoretical and practical gaps of urban adaptive planning and Geo-ICT implementation, this article presents an urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach using integrated socio-ecological modelling. The application of the Geo-ICT method is demonstrated in a specific case study of climate-resilient city development in Nanjing (China), aiming at helping city decision-makers understand the general geographic data processing and policy revision processes in response to hypothetical future disruptions and pressures on urban social, economic, and environmental systems. Ideally, the conceptual framework of the climate-resilient city transition proposed in this study effectively integrates the geographic data analysis, policy modification, and participatory planning. In the process of model building, we put forward the index system of urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment and use the assessment result as input data for the socio-ecological model. As a result, the model reveals the interaction processes of local land use, economy, and environment, further generating an evolving state of future land use in the studied city. The findings of this study demonstrate that socio-ecological modelling can provide guidance in adjusting the human-land interaction and climate-resilient city development from the perspective of macro policy. The decision support using urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment and quantitative system modelling can be useful for urban development under a variety of environmental change scenarios.

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• How Does ICT Expansion Drive “Smart” Urban Growth? A Case Study of Nanjing, China

  2020. Zipan Cai, Vladimir Cvetkovic, Jessica Page. Urban Planning 5 (1), 129-139

  Article

  In the context of accelerated urbanization, socioeconomic development, and population growth, as well as the rapid advancement of information and communication technology (ICT), urban land is rapidly expanding worldwide. Unplanned urban growth has led to the low utilization efficiency of land resources. Also, ecological and agricultural lands are continuously sacrificed for urban construction, which in the long-term may severely impact the health of citizens in cities. A thorough understanding of the mechanisms and driving forces of a city’s urban land use changes, including the influence of ICT development, is therefore crucial to the formation of optimal and feasible urban planning in the new era. Taking Nanjing as a study case, this article attempts to explore the measurable “smart” driving indicators of urban land use change and analyze the tapestry of the relationship between these and urban land use change. Different from the traditional linear regression analysis method of driving force of urban land use change, this study focuses on the interaction relationship and the underlying causal relationship among various “smart” driving factors, so it adopts a fuzzy statistical method, namely the grey relational analysis (GRA). Through the integration of literature research and known effective data, five categories of “smart” indicators have been taken as the primary driving factors: industry and economy, transportation, humanities and science, ICT systems, and environmental management. The results show that these indicators have different impacts on driving urban built-up land growth. Accordingly, optimization possibilities and recommendations for development strategies are proposed to realize a “smarter” development direction in Nanjing. This article confirms the effectiveness of GRA for studies on the driving mechanisms of urban land use change and provides a theoretical basis for the development goals of a smart city.

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• Open-source planning support system for sustainable regional planning: A case study of Stockholm County, Sweden

  2020. Jessica Page (et al.). Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science 47 (8), 1508-1523

  Article

  Population increases and environmental degradation are challenges for urban sustainability. Planning support systems are available to assist local authorities in developing strategies toward sustainability and resilience of urban areas, but are not always used in practice. We adapted an open-source planning support system to the case of Stockholm County, Sweden, where there is a productive working relationship between researchers, city planners, and regional planners. We employed a collaborative approach in extending and updating the planning support system and analyzed the outcomes, in order to both improve the planning support system and to investigate the process of planner engagement in planning support system development. The approach involved systematic interactions with local planning authorities and e.g. additional data processing, integrating scientific knowledge, policy, and engagement by planners in the complex process of planning for sustainable urban development. This made the planning support system more user-friendly for local planners, facilitating adoption by planning authorities through overcoming common quality and acceptance barriers to the use of planning support system in practice. Involving planners in planning support system development thus increases (i) planning support system quality, producing relevant and up-to-date outputs, and (ii) acceptance for planning support system by regional planners. Further assessment is required to determine whether planners can operate the adapted planning support system unaided.

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• Understanding interactions between urban development policies and GHG emissions: A case study in Stockholm Region

  2020. Haozhi Pan (et al.). Ambio 49 (7), 1313-1327

  Article

  Human-induced urban growth and sprawl have implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that may not be included in conventional GHG accounting methods. Improved understanding of this issue requires use of interactive, spatial-explicit social-ecological systems modeling. This paper develops a comprehensive approach to modeling GHG emissions from urban developments, considering Stockholm County, Sweden as a case study. GHG projections to 2040 with a social-ecological system model yield overall greater emissions than simple extrapolations in official climate action planning. The most pronounced difference in emissions (39% higher) from energy use single-residence buildings resulting from urban sprawl. And this difference is not accounted for in the simple extrapolations. Scenario results indicate that a zoning policy, restricting urban development in certain areas, can mitigate 72% of the total emission effects of the model-projected urban sprawl. The study outcomes include a decision support interface for communicating results and policy implications with policymakers.

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• Meeting sustainable development challenges in growing cities: Coupled social-ecological systems modeling of land use and water changes

  2019. Zahra Kalantari (et al.). Journal of Environmental Management 245, 471-480

  Article

  Ongoing urban expansion may degrade natural resources, ecosystems, and the services they provide to human societies, e.g., through land use and water changes and feedbacks. In order to control and minimize such negative impacts of urbanization, best practices for sustainable urban development must be identified, supported, and reinforced. To accomplish this, assessment methods and tools need to consider the couplings and feedbacks between social and ecological systems, as the basis for improving the planning and management of urban development. Collaborative efforts by academics, urban planners, and other relevant actors are also essential in this context. This will require relevant methods and tools for testing and projecting scenarios of coupled social-ecological system (CSES) behavior, changes, and feedbacks, in support of sustainable development of growing cities. This paper presents a CSES modeling approach that can provide such support, by coupling socio-economically driven land use changes and associated hydrological changes. The paper exemplifies and tests the applicability of this approach for a concrete case study with relevant data availability, the Tyresan catchment in Stockholm County, Sweden. Results show that model integration in the approach can reveal impacts of urbanization on hydrological and water resource, and the implications and feedbacks for urban societies and ecosystems. The CSES approach introduces new model challenges, but holds promise for improved model support towards sustainable urban development.

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• Using comparative socio-ecological modeling to support Climate Action Planning (CAP)

  2019. Haozhi Pan (et al.). Journal of Cleaner Production 232, 30-42

  Article

  We present a comparative socio-ecological modeling approach to identify possible improvement opportunities for Climate Action Plans (CAPs), focusing on two cities, Chicago and Stockholm. The aim is to provide a tool for capturing and addressing deep-rooted behavioral and institutional preferences that may aggravate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in cities. Socio-economic activities, land use change, and future urban forms are considered and forecast to the year 2040 on 30m x 30m spatial grids. GHG emissions associated with these urban development aspects are calculated and compared between the cities. Innovative policy instruments for growth control and zoning (GCZ) are simulated and tested through the socio-ecological model, to determine their effectiveness when added to other interventions included in the CAPs. Our findings show that behavioral/institutional preference for sprawl, its low density form, and resultant carbon sink losses are main factors driving current and future residential and transportation GHG emissions in Chicago. GCZ policies are shown to counteract and mitigate around 20% of these factors in the form of future GHG emissions.

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Show all publications by Jessica Faye Page at Stockholm University